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Fraud in the American Election - Fact or Fiction

November 11, 2020 5:47 PM

I voted USAPresident Trump claims that in Pennsylvania hundreds of thousands of mail-in votes for Biden magically appeared from nowhere. Fraud! Fact or Fiction?

As someone who has been involved in UK General Elections for nearly 40 years as an election agent I was intrigued. After all Trump may be correct.

The Pennsylvania State Election Board has a fantastic website. Better than anything I have ever seen in the UK. The Republicans control both the Senate and House in the State and, it seems, they have spent heavily on the latest technology, systems and training. This does explain why the State Officials looked sick as their own President accused them, to the world, of corruption.

Their website "Election Dashboard" has the details about Mail-In, or as we would say, Postal Ballots. It is much more difficult to get a postal vote in the USA compared to the UK. You have to provide proof of identity; none of this filling in an on-line form as in the UK. The key page is at this link https://data.pa.gov/Government-That-Works/2020-General-Election-Mail-Ballot-Party-Codes/ekvt-6kiz.

Remember Trump told his supporters NOT to vote by mail-in ballots. It looks as if they did exactly what he told them to do. When a person registers to vote in the USA they register as a Republican, a Democrat or as an Independent. The reason to register to a Party is so you can vote in Primary Elections to choose a candidate. For this election 25% are registered Republican, 63% as Democrat and 12% Independent (to keep their views private).

A total of 3.1 million voters requested a mail-in ballot. Depending on whom the Independents voted for, Biden should expect 63-75% and Trump 25-37%. We know from exit polls that 4% of registered Democrats voted for Trump and 10% of registered Republicans voted for Biden. Based on the number of ballot requests these cancel each other out. We also know that Independents split around 6 to 4 in favour of Biden.

My estimate is that the Pennsylvania mail-in voters split 70% to 30% in favour of Biden. The USA news networks were telling us that Biden was getting between 60% and 80% of the vote as the Counties declared their results. As an outsider I would say that the votes are genuine and correct. Biden has won Pennsylvania fair and square.

We should also remember that NO RESULTS HAVE BEEN DECLARED AND CERTIFIED ANYWHERE, IN ANY STATE YET. The counting of votes is automated and done by machine. The next stage is a full audit of each count to make sure that the software has not made a mistake or been tampered with. Thousands of randomly selected sample votes from the machines are compared by hand to the individual original paper ballot papers to statistically prove that the count is correct. If anything the USA result is likely to be more accurate than an equivalent vote carried out in the UK.

In conclusion claims of mail-in voter fraud are another flight of fancy and malicious wishful thinking on the part of Trump.

Hugh Warner